By Emma Peterson. 

Industry veteran John Kenney explains how stronger connections between Canadian and American contractors can drive innovation, education and long-term industry growth. 

In our first-ever Roofing Road Trip® Canada edition, John Kenney and Karol Weyman discuss how the launch of RoofersCoffeeShop.ca will help build bonds between the Canadian and American roofing markets. John is the CEO of Cotney Consulting Group and a roofing veteran with decades of field experience. In his own words, “I started in the roofing industry more than four decades ago and working on the roof and learning the trade from the ground up. From there, I moved through estimating, project management operations and eventually executive leadership. Those experiences gave me a practical understanding of nearly every part of the roofing company.” 

And over the course of that storied career, John has experienced the value of collaboration between Canadian and American professionals firsthand:  

As my consulting and training work expanded, I began receiving more opportunities to work with contractors and manufacturers and also industry organizations like the Canadian Roofing Contractors Association (CRCA) throughout Canada. Working further north was a natural progression and I've learned just as much from the Canadian contractors as I hope they have learned from me as every market and every company offers a different perspective. 

It is experiences like John’s that the RoofersCoffeeShop.ca microsite aims to foster. Because when we all learn from each other, we all grow stronger. John shared some insights related to this, saying, “The roofing industry definitely becomes stronger when we take the time to learn from one another. The challenges contractors face don't stop at any kind of national borders or provincial borders, but each market does approach solving them differently based on their environments and cultures.”  

By building a space where contractors can build relationships with their peers in a different country, RoofersCoffeeShop.ca is helping share ideas and solutions that benefit everyone. In John’s words, “The more we openly share ideas, I think the stronger the entire industry becomes.” 

Check out the whole episode to learn more about how the launch of RoofersCoffeeShop.ca is fostering industry-growing relationships.

By Emma Peterson. 

The importance of strong estimating practices in managing risk, protecting profitability and setting projects up for success. 

Estimating is the foundation of roofing projects – without an accurate assessment of a project, and the costs related to it, it's difficult to expect a project to go smoothly. But making sure your estimate is accurate is also one of the most challenging parts of a roofing project. To learn about how you can level up your estimating skills, we hosted John Kenney of Cotney Consulting Group for an episode of Roofing Road Trips®. 

Across the decades he has spent in the roofing industry, John has seen quite a few professionals struggle to build estimates. He shared the most common issue he sees, saying, “Estimators are taught how to measure roofs, how to price materials, but not how to manage the most important items, which is assumptions, communicate scope and company margins.”  

Why is it important that an estimator is aware of and managing these more abstract factors? As one of the first parts of any project, estimating is also the first step in risk management. John explained, “Estimating is really a decision-making role, not the takeoff one we see it presented as. As an estimator, you are the first to think through the project and make decisions about what will be done. That is directly tied to profitability and the risk.”  

So, how do you ensure you or your estimator are ready to tackle managing risk during the estimating process? Get the right training. John described how he trains estimators to go beyond the measurements and into risk management:  

We help them with estimating with a focus on giving them the skills that they won’t get in the field. So we focus on planning, communication, accountability and problem solving. Our goal is to give these leaders confidence and structure so they're not reacting all day. They're actually managing proactively. 

And managing proactively? That’s what shifts your estimating from just measurements and math to risk management and decision-making. And by making that shift, your company will be set up for successful, smooth projects. 

Want to learn more about estimator’s roles in risk management? Listen to the rest of the podcast!

By Jesse Sanchez. 

Industry leaders explain why financial discipline, diversification and customer education matter as roofing businesses navigate economic and insurance pressures. 

During a live Coffee Conversations® discussion at the Florida Roofing and Sheet Metal Association (FRSA), roofing professionals examined the pressures impacting contractor success across the United States. The panel agreed that shrinking backlogs, insurance changes and aggressive pricing are forcing companies to strengthen their operations rather than chase every available project. 

What market shifts are creating the most concern for contractors? 

As contractors adjust to a changing business environment, John Kenney, chief executive officer of Cotney Consulting Group, said several challenges are creating uncertainty at the same time. He shared: 

“I think insurance claims and understanding the industry’s new insurance rules are causing a lot of angst for contractors. AI, robotics and other technologies are also major issues people are trying to understand. Contractors are also watching prices, fuel costs and shrinking backlogs.”  

John encouraged contractors to use slower periods to improve their companies and pursue work that fits their established capabilities. Bridget Jenkins Wilson, owner of Cardinal Roofing, added that roofing is cyclical and contractors should prepare during strong years for the slower periods that follow. 

How can contractors move from storm-dependent work to retail sales? 

Changes in the insurance market are also pushing some roofing businesses to pursue more retail work. Adam Bensman of TAMKO® and the Roofing STRONG Alliance said this transition requires more than simply finding a different type of customer. He explained: 

“The hottest trend in roofing is the shift from storm-dependent to retail-driven business. I am seeing roofing companies that were built to catch or chase storms, but lack formal sales processes and structure, now trying to learn how to sell retail.”  

Adam warned that companies without structured sales processes may respond to pressure by discounting projects below sustainable levels. Bridget emphasized educating homeowners about policies, deductibles, materials and payment responsibilities rather than relying on high-pressure sales tactics. 

What should contractors prioritize during an economic slowdown? 

Although contractors cannot control the economy, John said they can improve their decision-making by developing a detailed understanding of their financial position. He noted, “Right now, you need to know your numbers, understand exactly what your overhead is and focus on the work your business is best suited to perform.”  

That financial clarity can help contractors avoid pursuing unprofitable work simply to keep crews busy. Marc Hansen of JobNimbus agreed that contractors need reliable systems for estimating, customer communication, payment collection and follow-up. Bridget also encouraged companies to examine everyday expenses, material waste and internal financial controls. 

The panel’s message was clear: Contractors cannot control market cycles, but they can control their pricing, processes and customer experience. Companies that understand their costs and serve homeowners transparently will be better positioned for the next phase of the market. 

Listen to the entire podcast or Watch the conversation to learn more about adapting a roofing business to economic and insurance changes. 

By John Kenney, Cotney Consulting Group. 

The best roofing companies are the companies that prevent more emergencies from occurring in the first place.  

After more than 45 years in the roofing industry, I have learned that successful roofing businesses rarely become successful because of one major decision. They improve because of hundreds of smaller decisions made correctly and consistently over time. 

It is the decision to review a tender carefully before submitting it, to hold a proper project handover before work begins on site, to order materials early enough to protect the programme and to give the site team complete information instead of expecting them to work everything out after installation has started. It is also the decision to address a small problem before it becomes an expensive one. None of these actions appears extraordinary on its own, but together they create operational excellence. 

I have worked with roofing contractors of different sizes, structures and specialities throughout my career. Some have focused on commercial roofing, while others have worked in pitched roofing, service, maintenance, waterproofing or specialist systems. Although terminology, contracts and regulations vary between markets, the operational challenges are often remarkably similar. 

Companies struggle with incomplete information, projects are handed over too quickly, labour is scheduled without enough planning and materials arrive late or in the wrong sequence. Site teams are then asked to make decisions that should have been resolved before mobilisation, while commercial issues are sometimes identified only after the work has already been completed. 

A lack of effort rarely causes these problems. Most roofing businesses are filled with hardworking people. The problem is usually that the company depends too heavily on effort and not enough on process. 

Hard work cannot replace a reliable system 

Many roofing companies operate through what I call organisational heroics. A few experienced people carry an enormous amount of knowledge in their heads. They remember the important details, solve problems quickly and step in whenever something begins to go wrong. The company appears to function because these individuals continually rescue it. 

That approach may work for a period of time, particularly when the business is small. Eventually, however, the workload grows beyond what a handful of people can manage. Projects become larger, tender opportunities increase, clients expect faster communication and contract requirements become more demanding. At the same time, the number of operatives, suppliers, subcontractors and active sites expands. 

At that point, experience alone is no longer enough. The business needs repeatable systems that enable experienced people to share their knowledge with the rest of the organisation. 

A strong system does not remove judgement. It supports good judgement by ensuring that the same important questions are asked on every project, regardless of who is managing it. What did the estimator include in the tender? What was excluded or qualified? Which materials have long lead times? What access equipment and plant will be required? What labourresources were assumed? What information is still outstanding? What risks could affect the programme? What must be confirmed before the team arrives on site? 

When these questions are built into a consistent process, the company becomes less dependent on memory and more capable of delivering predictable results. 

Operational excellence begins before work reaches site 

Roofing contractors often measure operational performance by what happens during installation. They review productivity, monitor labour hours, inspect quality and track whether the project is progressing to programme. All of that matters, but the site team's performance is often determined long before the first operative arrives. 

A project that begins with incomplete information is already at a disadvantage. If the tender has not been properly reviewed, the project manager may not understand the assumptions underlying the price. If procurement starts too late, the programme may be affected before work begins. If access, storage or lifting requirements have not been coordinated, the site team loses time resolving preventable problems. If the contract documents contain conflicting information, those conflicts should be identified early rather than discovered during installation. 

Operational excellence therefore begins during estimating and tender review. Estimating is not simply the process of calculating quantities and applying rates. It is the beginning of project management. The estimator is often the first person in the business to study the drawings, specifications, scope of works and site requirements in detail. The information gathered during that process must be transferred clearly to the people responsible for delivering the project. 

Without that transfer, the business effectively starts again after the contract is secured. The same documents are reviewed twice, the same questions are asked again, important assumptions are lost and potential risks are overlooked. A proper handover protects the knowledge already created during the tendering process and gives the delivery team a much stronger starting point. 

Consistency is more valuable than occasional brilliance 

Every roofing company has excellent days. The tender is accurate, the materials arrive on time, the site team performs well, the client is satisfied and the project is completed profitably. The real question is whether the business can consistently produce that result. 

One successful project does not prove that the company has a strong operating system. It may simply mean that the right people happened to be involved and conditions worked in the contractor’s favour. Operational excellence is measured by repeatability. Can the company deliver the same quality when several projects are active at once? Can it maintain communication when key members of staff are away? Can a newer project manager follow the process and produce a reliable result? Can the business identify declining performance before the financial damage becomes serious? Can lessons learned on one project improve the next tender and the next site? 

The strongest roofing businesses do not rely on everything going perfectly. They develop systems that allow them to respond when conditions change. Weather affects the programme. A supplier changes a delivery date. The client revises access requirements. Existing conditions differ from the information provided. An operative becomes unavailable. A variation requires additional labour and materials. 

These events are part of construction. Operational excellence does not mean preventing every problem. It means creating a business capable of identifying problems early, communicating clearly and responding in a controlled way. 

Leadership creates the operating standard

Processes matter, but processes only work when leadership reinforces them. A company can write the best procedures in the industry and still achieve poor results if managers ignore them whenever the business becomes busy. In fact, busy periods are when systems matter most. 

When pressure increases, people tend to return to old habits. Meetings are shortened, handover documents are left incomplete, site reports are delayed, procurement decisions are made verbally without proper records and commercial issues are postponed. Everyone focuses on the immediate problem in front of them. That is understandable, but it is also dangerous. 

Leadership must make it clear that following the operating process is not additional work. It is how the work is controlled. This requires more than issuing instructions. Leaders must explain why the process matters. A complete site report is not paperwork for the sake of paperwork. It protects the contractor by recording progress, labour, delays, instructions, deliveries and site conditions. A tender review is not an administrative exercise. It helps the business assess whether the price reflects the project's risks and requirements. A pre-start meeting is not a formality. It allows the project team to resolve questions before those questions begin costing money. 

People are more likely to follow a process when they understand how it protects them, the project and the business.

Improvement must become part of the routine 

Operational excellence is not a final destination. No company completes one round of process improvements and remains efficient forever. Clients change, contract requirements change, materials and systems evolve, technology develops, the workforce changes and the business grows. Processes that worked when the contractor managed five active projects may not work when it manages 20. 

For that reason, roofing businesses need a regular method for reviewing performance. The company should compare the estimate with the actual project cost, examine which activities used more labour than expected and review whether variations were promptly identified and valued. It should also ask whether the site team received the information it needed, what caused delays, what the client communicated during and after the project and what should be repeated or changed next time. 

These conversations should not be used to assign blame. They should be used to improve the system. When people believe that every review is an attempt to identify who made a mistake, they stop sharing useful information. When the purpose is improvement, the company can turn individual experience into organisational knowledge. 

That is one of the most valuable assets a roofing business can build. 

Predictable performance is the real advantage 

Roofing will always involve uncertainty. No operating system will eliminate weather, supply disruption, labour challenges, unexpected site conditions or changing client demands. What a strong system does is make the business less vulnerable to them. 

It gives leaders better information, helps estimators understand actual performance, allows project managers to plan further ahead and gives site teams clearer direction. It also improves communication with clients and protects quality, programme and margin. Most importantly, it makes successful performance more predictable. 

The best roofing companies are not necessarily the ones working the longest hours or solving the most emergencies. They are the companies that prevent more emergencies from occurring in the first place. 

That does not happen by accident. It is built through disciplined planning, clear expectations, consistent communication and a willingness to improve how the business operates every day. 

That is operational excellence. 

About the author 

John Kenney has more than 45 years of experience in the roofing industry. His career has included every level of roofing operations, from field installation and estimating through executive leadership. He is the CEO of Cotney Consulting Group, a partner member of the International Federation for the Roofing Trades. He has earned the MIoR designation from the former Institute of Roofing in the United Kingdom. He works with roofing contractors to improve estimating, project management, operational performance, leadership and profitability. 

By Alex Tolle, The Coffee Shops®.

Explore education focused on everything from roof performance and evolving codes to building-envelope design and business management at this year's show.

Continuing education gives roofing professionals an opportunity to step away from daily demands and take a closer look at the systems, materials, requirements and economic forces shaping their work. At the Western Roofing Expo 2026, hosted by Western States Roofing Contractors Association, attendees can explore a broad seminar lineup designed to strengthen roofing knowledge, connect technical decisions to better-performing buildings and help them make better business deciscions. 

The program starts with the evolution of core roofing systems. Ken Klein will examine four decades of single-ply roofing, including changes in materials, attachment methods and detailing driven by jobsite experience. Trent Cotney and John Kenney will offer a wider industry perspective by tracing how roofing materials, craftsmanship, codes and technology have developed over time.

Fire resilience is another important focus. Marco Sieber and Maury Alpert will discuss roof coverings and underlayments that can help mitigate the effects of flame and embers in the wildland-urban interface. Building on that conversation, Jess Grandy will review developing ventilation regulations and fire-resistant vent options intended to help homeowners prepare their properties and meet applicable codes. 

Attendees can also deepen their understanding of moisture and climate-related performance. Phil Dregger will share findings from a three-year study involving water accumulation and wood decay below reflective roofing. Mindy Dahlquist will explore how snow retention, ventilation, roof geometry and material selection affect roof performance in cold and mixed climates across the western United States. 

Several sessions turn attention to design responsibilities and changing building requirements. Brian Chamberlain will clarify the differences between design expectations and manufacturers’ published warranty coverage. Matt Braun will examine emerging air-barrier requirements for reroofing and explain how air, moisture and thermal-control layers interact. Brian will also lead a session on roof-to-wall connections, addressing air leakage, wind resistance, product compatibility and trade coordination at one of the building envelope’s most important junctions.

In addition to the technically focused sessions, there are sessions that focus on business management. One such session will be taught by our President and CEO, Heidi J. Ellsworth! In the session, Roofing Trends That Matter, Heidi will share about the RoofersCoffeeShop 2025 Trends Report, which collected contractor survey data from more than 200 roofing professionals representing residential, commercial and mixed contractors of all sizes. Attendees of this presentation will "gain insight into how contractors are adapting through technology, digital marketing and operational changes" and get practical tips for using "marketing, technology and community involvement to build trust, increase visibility and strengthen long-term business stability."

Together, these seminars offer practical education for professionals working to improve installation, design, compliance and long-term roof performance. Select sessions also provide continuing education opportunities through the American Institute of Architects and the International Institute of Building Enclosure Consultants.

Learn more about the education available at the Western Roofing Expo 2026.

By John Kenney, Cotney Consulting Group. 

How roofing contractors should plan for slower growth, uneven demand and continued volatility.

If you are having trouble deciding what the economy is telling you right now, you are not alone. The signals do not agree. 

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 jobs in July, while construction added 22,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, even as labor-force participation remained at 61.4%. The broader economy is still growing, but not rapidly. Real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1% in the first quarter. 

National construction backlog still looks reasonably healthy, yet architecture billings remain weak. Some contractors are carrying significant amounts of work, while others are telling me their runway is getting noticeably shorter. Data centers and power-related construction continue to perform extremely well, while several traditional commercial and residential markets remain much softer. 

Depending on which number you look at, you can make a case that the economy is still growing, the labor market is weakening or construction is holding up better than other sectors. All three can be true at the same time. 

That is a difficult environment to plan around, but it does not make planning impossible. I do not believe the current data tells us a severe recession is inevitable. I also do not believe it gives roofing contractors much reason to assume everything will work itself out. 

The more prudent position is somewhere in between. For business planning, I would operate on the assumption of slower growth, increasingly uneven demand, continued cost volatility, and elevated policy risk, while maintaining sufficientliquidity and operating flexibility to handle a genuine downturn if several of these pressures converge. 

That may not be the most exciting forecast, but it may be the most useful one. 

The headline economy is not the contractor economy 

One of the biggest mistakes business owners can make is assuming national economic statistics describe what is happening inside their company. They do not. Roofing contractors do not operate at the national average. 

They operate within a specific geographic area, serve a particular customer base, operate in certain market sectors, and depend on specific general contractors, owners, manufacturers, and suppliers. That means two roofing companies located a hundred miles apart can experience completely different economies. 

One contractor may be heavily exposed to data centers, health care, power generation or public-sector work and have more opportunities than the company can reasonably pursue. Another may depend heavily on retail, traditional office, private development or residential construction and find projects moving slower, owners hesitating, and competition becoming much more aggressive. 

Both companies are operating in the same national economy. They are simply experiencing different versions of it. That distinction matters when preparing a business plan. 

The question should not simply be, “How is construction doing?” The better question is, “How are the markets we depend on doing?” 

Construction is splitting into different markets 

The current backlog numbers illustrate the problem. Associated Builders and Contractors reported national construction backlog at 8.8 months in June. On the surface, that appears healthy. Look deeper, and the story becomes more complicated. 

Contractors involved in data-center work reported a backlog of 11.0 months, compared with 8.5 months for contractors without data-center exposure. Earlier in the year, ABC also reported that backlog growth was concentrated among the largest contractors, while smaller revenue groups showed weaker year-over-year results. 

That tells me we do not have one construction market right now. We have several. Data centers remain extremely strong, power-related construction continues to attract significant investment, and certain infrastructure and institutional sectorsremain active. 

At the same time, parts of manufacturing, private commercial development, office construction, and residential activity remain under pressure. Strong markets are becoming even stronger, while weak markets are becoming even weaker. 

The national average sits somewhere between the two and may accurately describe neither. That is why roofing executives need to understand their own market mix much better than they understand the national average. 

Backlog may be sending the wrong signal 

I have always paid close attention to backlog. It is one of the most important forward-looking indicators for a roofing company, but backlog must be understood correctly. A contractor can have plenty of work under contract and still have a production problem developing. 

I believe there are really three kinds of backlog. Reported backlog is the work you have under contract. Executable backlog is the work you realistically expect to move into production during the period planned. Profitable backlog is executable work that still meets the company’s margin expectations. 

Those numbers are not always the same. A roofing contractor may have a large project under contract today that is not scheduled to reach the roofing scope for another six months. If financing, permitting, another trade or the general construction schedule pushes that project back another 90 days, the project technically remains in backlog. However, the crew that was supposed to start that roof in October still needs somewhere to work. 

That is the difference between reported backlog and executable backlog. 

In my work with roofing and specialty contractors, I generally consider a quality, executable backlog of six months or more a healthy operating position. When the backlog approaches three months, I want leadership to monitor the bidding pipeline, award timing, and project start dates very closely. When it approaches two months, I become concerned because a single project delay, a lost award or a customer financing issue can quickly create a production gap. 

That is not a published national industry standard. It is an operating benchmark developed from years of managing and advising roofing companies. 

Right now, I am hearing more concern from roofing contractors around the country about shorter backlog visibility, delayed starts, and work that does not feel as certain as it did several months ago. That field feedback deserves attention. 

A contractor with nine months of reported backlog but only four months of reliably executable work has a four-month problem, not a nine-month solution. 

Labor is weakening without becoming easy 

The labor market is sending another mixed signal. National hiring has slowed significantly. May and June payroll gains were revised lower, and total nonfarm employment declined in July. Labor-force participation has also fallen since the beginning of the year. 

Those are legitimate signs of a cooling labor market, but roofing contractors should not assume that means skilled people will suddenly become easy to find. They will not. 

A slower national economy may increase the number of people seeking work, but it does not automatically create experienced roofing estimators, project managers, superintendents, service technicians or foremen. Those skills take years to develop. 

Our industry is also dealing with a generational transition as experienced people retire and companies compete for a limited pool of proven talent. That creates another planning challenge. 

Contractors should be cautious about adding overhead simply because they expect future growth. They should be equally cautious about cutting experienced people too quickly because the economic headlines turn negative. Replacing a strong estimator or project manager twelve months from now may be much more difficult than retaining that person through a slower period. 

The forward pipeline deserves attention 

Backlog tells us what contractors already have. Architecture and design activity can tell us something about what may be coming. That is why I believe the Architecture Billings Index deserves attention. 

The June Architecture Billings Index came in at 47.3, remaining below the 50 level associated with growth. Architecture-firm backlog also declined from 6.6 months in the first quarter to 6.3 months in the second quarter. 

I would not use that information to predict a construction collapse. I would use it as another reason not to become complacent. Design work occurs well before construction, and when design activity remains weak for an extended period, it can eventually result in fewer projects reaching the bidding stage. 

That becomes particularly important as contractors begin developing their 2027 budgets. The work you are installing today was often designed and financed many months ago. The condition of the design pipeline today may tell us more about the opportunities available next year. 

Delays may matter more than cancellations 

There is another issue I believe contractors sometimes underestimate. Projects do not have to disappear to hurt your business. They only need to move. 

Contractor surveys this year have continued to show a significant number of projects postponed, scaled back or canceled. From an operational standpoint, a postponement can sometimes be nearly as disruptive as a cancellation. 

Imagine you have a $2 million roofing project scheduled to begin in October. The owner still intends to build it, the contract still exists, and the project remains in your backlog. But financing problems push the start into February. 

Your backlog report may barely change, while your October production schedule changes dramatically. Now you have crews without the work you expected, equipment sitting idle, overhead continuing, and cash flow shifting. Other jobs may need to be accelerated to fill the hole. 

That is why contractors need to talk with general contractors and owners about more than whether a project is still active. Ask whether the start date is still realistic. That conversation can be far more valuable than simply looking at the backlog report. 

Costs have not returned to normal 

A slowing economy would be easier to manage if costs were declining at the same time. That is not necessarily the environment contractors are operating in. 

July’s inflation reports are a good example of why the headlines can be misleading. Consumer prices rose only 0.1% in July, and the annual inflation rate eased slightly to 3.4%. Producer prices were flat overall for the month. That soundsencouraging, and it is, but it does not mean prices are falling. 

If inflation drops from 4% to 3%, that does not mean prices fell 1%. It means prices are still increasing, just at a slower rate than before. The same distinction matters on the producer side. Even with no overall increase in July, producer prices were still 4.7% higher than a year earlier. 

For construction, the picture was even more important. Construction input prices edged up 0.1% in July and remained 7.4% higher than a year earlier. A lower inflation rate can slow the erosion of margins, but it does not automatically restore them. 

Material prices remain elevated, insurance continues to pressure overhead and skilled labor costs remain high. Fuel and freight can change quickly and recent disruptions involving global refinery capacity and major shipping routes are another reminder that energy costs can move independently of the broader economic cycle. Financing also remains expensive compared with the environment contractors grew accustomed to years ago. 

That creates one of the more difficult combinations for any business. Slower growth reduces pricing power, higher costs squeeze margins, and shorter backlog increases the temptation to chase work. 

That is where discipline matters. The worst response to a weakening market can be filling the schedule with low-margin work simply because everyone is worried about keeping crews busy. 

Busy and profitable are not the same thing. That lesson becomes even more important when the market starts slowing. 

Build a plan that does not require you to be right 

This is the part I believe matters most as contractors prepare for 2027. The best business plan in an uncertain economy is not the one built around the most accurate forecast. It is the one that still works when the forecast is wrong. 

I would build next year’s plan around three scenarios. The base case assumes slower growth, uneven construction demand, and continued cost volatility. The upside case assumes financing improves, project starts accelerate, and demand begins broadening across more construction sectors. 

The downside case assumes several pressures converge at the same time: employment weakens further, financing becomes more difficult, project delays increase, the backlog declines, and cost pressures remain. 

I am not suggesting contractors build three separate companies or three completely different budgets. I am suggesting leadership understand what happens under each scenario. 

What happens to revenue and gross margin? How much backlog and cash do we need? When do we stop hiring or adjust overhead? Which capital expenditures can wait? Which investments continue regardless of conditions? At what point does declining executable backlog trigger a change in strategy? 

Those decisions are much easier to make today than when everyone is already under pressure. 

Liquidity is strategic flexibility 

Cash is sometimes treated as money simply sitting on the balance sheet. During uncertain markets, liquidity is much more valuable than that because it creates options. 

It allows a company to retain a strong employee through a temporary slowdown, purchase materials earlier when there is a legitimate financial advantage, absorb a delayed project, and pursue an opportunity when a competitor cannot. 

Most importantly, liquidity prevents desperation. Companies under financial pressure often make poor decisions because they run out of time. They bid projects they should not bid, accept margins they should not accept, borrow under unfavorable terms, delay necessary investments, and make personnel decisions based on what happens next week rather than where the company needs to be next year. 

Liquidity buys time, and time creates better decisions. 

Do not cut away your ability to grow 

Preparing for slower growth does not mean putting the company into recession mode. That would be another mistake. 

If conditions weaken, contractors should absolutely challenge overhead, delay unnecessary purchases, protect cash, review expenses, and improve collections. But there is a difference between eliminating waste and eliminating capacity. 

Your strongest estimator is capacity. Your best project manager is capacity. Your service department is capacity. Leadership development is capacity. Technology that improves estimating, project visibility, and job costing may also be capacity. 

A contractor can cut so deeply during a slowdown that the company survives the downturn but is unable to take advantage of the recovery. That is why I prefer flexibility over fear. 

Protect the capabilities that make the company stronger. Challenge the expenses that do not. 

What I would be doing going into 2027 

If I were sitting with a roofing contractor today, preparing next year’s business plan, I would begin with the executable backlog rather than the total backlog. 

I would review what is realistically scheduled at 30, 60, 90, 180, and 270 days, then stress-test it. What happens if one large project is delayed by 90 days? What happens if two projects move? Which customers represent the greatest concentration risk? Which jobs still depend on financing or other approvals? Which projects have aggressive margin assumptions? 

I would review the bid pipeline and hit rates. I would increase business development before backlog becomes critical rather than waiting until crews need work. I would watch collections and cash conversion closely, preserve available credit even if I did not expect to use it, challenge major capital expenditures, and protect strong people and productive operating capacity. 

Most importantly, I would establish clear trigger points for when the company changes course. If the executable backlog falls below a predetermined level, what actions are taken? If gross margin misses plan for two consecutive months, what gets reviewed? If accounts receivable starts to stretch, who owns the response? If major projects move, when does labor planning change? 

Those decisions should not be made for the first time during a crisis. The time to make them is now. 

Planning without pretending to know the future 

I do not believe roofing executives should plan as though a recession is inevitable. I also do not believe they should assume today’s economic pressures will work themselves out. 

The more prudent position lies between those two extremes. Build the company around a reasonable expectation of slower growth, increasingly uneven demand and continued cost volatility. Maintain enough liquidity and operating flexibility to withstand a genuine downturn if several pressures converge. 

At the same time, preserve enough capacity to take advantage of opportunity if conditions improve. 

The economic signals may continue to disagree. That does not mean leadership has to be uncertain. We do not need to know exactly what the economy will do next. We need to build roofing companies capable of succeeding under more than one outcome. 

That is not pessimism. It is responsible business planning. 

By John Kenney, Cotney Consulting Group. 

Every roofing project teaches the contractor something. The question is whether the business captures that lesson or allows it to disappear when the job is finished. 

Some lessons are obvious. A material may perform differently than expected, access may prove more difficult than the tender allowed for, labour productivity may be lower in one roof area or a supplier lead time may affect the programme. Other lessons are less visible. The handover may have been incomplete, the client’s expectations may not have been fully understood, a variation may have been recognised too late or the site team may have found a better installation sequence that was never communicated back to estimating. 

In many roofing businesses, that knowledge remains with the people who worked on the project. The estimator remembers part of it, the project manager remembers another part and the site manager carries the rest. The project ends, everyone moves on and the company loses an opportunity to improve. 

The best roofing contractors do not treat completion as the end of the process. They treat it as the point where project experience should be converted into organisational knowledge. 

Experience only has value when it is shared

Roofing is an experience-driven industry. People learn by seeing what works, understanding what fails and recognising the conditions that create risk. That experience becomes extremely valuable over time, but only if the business has a way to share it. 

A company may have an estimator with 25 years of knowledge, a contracts manager who has completed hundreds of projects and a site supervisor who can identify installation problems before most people see them. Those individuals are valuable, but the business remains vulnerable if their knowledge is not transferred to others. 

The company should not have to relearn the same lesson every time a different person manages the project. 

If one site team discovers that a particular detail consistently requires more labour than the estimate allows, that information should reach the estimating team. If a project manager finds that a supplier’s actual lead time is longer than expected, that should be reflected in future procurement planning. If a client’s access restrictions create repeated disruption, the tender review process should address those conditions on the next project. 

Experience becomes a company asset only when it changes future behaviour. 

The estimate and the actual result must be compared 

One of the most important lessons on any project comes from comparing the tender with the final result. The estimate represents what the company believed would happen. The completed project shows what actually happened, and the difference between the two deserves attention. 

Did the project use more labour hours than allowed? Were material quantities accurate? Did waste exceed the tender assumption? Was plant required for longer than expected? Did the installation sequence work? Were there additional deliveries or handling costs? Did supervision continue beyond the planned period? Were variations identified and valued properly? 

These questions are not intended to prove that the estimator was wrong or that the project manager failed. They are intended to improve the next estimate and the next delivery plan. 

An estimate built entirely from historical rates can become unreliable if those rates are never tested against current project performance. Labour output changes, material packaging changes, access conditions vary and installation methods improve. The company needs actual information from completed work to keep its estimating assumptions realistic. 

Without that feedback, estimating and operations begin working from different versions of reality. 

Labour performance should be understood, not simply judged 

Labour overruns are often discussed too generally. The final report may show that the project exceeded the labour allowance, but that figure alone does not explain what happened. The business needs to understand where the hours were used and why. 

Was the original allowance too low? Did access reduce productivity? Was the site team waiting for another trade? Were materials handled more often than planned? Did the client change the sequence? Was additional preparation required? Did weather affect progress? Was the team unfamiliar with the roofing system? Did remedial work increase the total hours? 

A labour overrun caused by poor access requires a different correction from one caused by an inaccurate production rate. If the business concludes that the team was too slow, it may miss the real lesson.

The purpose of reviewing labour is not to blame the operatives. It is to understand the conditions that affected performance and determine whether the tender, programme, supervision or site plan should change in the future. That produces better decisions. 

Site knowledge must return to the office

The people working closest to the roof often see problems and opportunities first. They understand which details take longer than expected, which delivery methods create unnecessary handling, which areas are difficult to access and which installation sequences produce better results. That knowledge is valuable to estimating, procurement and project management.

Unfortunately, many businesses have a one-way flow of information. The office sends drawings, programmes and instructions to site, but very little structured information comes back. Daily reports may record labour and progress, but the broader operational lesson is rarely captured. 

A proper project review should include input from the site manager or supervisor. They should have the opportunity to explain what supported productivity, what disrupted the work and what the business should approach differently next time. This is especially important when the project went well. 

Companies often review failures in detail but spend very little time understanding success. If one team completed an area faster than expected while maintaining quality, the business should know why. Perhaps material distribution was better, the workface was released more effectively or the team developed an improved sequence. 

Good performance should be studied and repeated. 

Quality issues should improve the system

Every roofing contractor aims to complete work correctly the first time, but defects, snagging items and remedial work still occur. The value of a quality review is not simply confirming that the problem was corrected. The business should understand why it happened. 

Was the detail unclear? Was the wrong material delivered? Did the site team lack the correct information? Was supervision inadequate? Did programme pressure encourage rushed work? Was the inspection completed too late? Did the tender fail to allow enough time for the required level of detail? 

Correcting the visible defect solves the immediate problem. Correcting the process reduces the chance of recurrence. That is the difference between repair and improvement. 

If the company repeatedly encounters the same type of defect but never changes its training, supervision, inspection or documentation, it is not learning from the work. The strongest contractors use quality issues to strengthen the operating system. 

Commercial lessons must be captured as well

A project can perform reasonably well on site and still produce a poor financial result. Variations may be identified late; instructions may not be recorded; payment applications may not reflect actual progress; delay costs may not be tracked; the final account may remain unresolved for too long; or retention may be overlooked. 

These are commercial lessons, but they are also operational, as they often begin with communication and record-keeping. 

A variation that is not reported from site cannot be valued promptly. An undocumented delay becomes difficult to explain later. Additional labour that is not linked to a specific change becomes part of the general project cost. The post-project review should therefore consider more than productivity and quality. It should examine whether the business protected its commercial position throughout the work. 

Were instructions confirmed in writing? Were notices issued when required? Were variations submitted promptly? Did the project team maintain adequate records? Did the contractor recover the value of the work it completed? A profitable project depends on good installation and good commercial control. Both should be reviewed. 

Client feedback provides another perspective

Internal project reviews are important, but the contractor should also consider the client’s experience. The project may have met the roofing specification while still causing frustration due to poor communication, missed updates or inconsistent site management. 

The client may also have valued something the contractor did not recognise. They may have appreciated early warning of programme changes, clear explanations of technical issues or the way the site team managed access around an occupied building. That feedback can help the contractor understand what creates trust. 

Not every client comment requires a change in process, but patterns matter. If several clients raise the same concern, the business should listen. If several clients praise the same behaviour, that strength should become part of the company’s operating standard. 

The goal is not simply to complete technically acceptable work. It is to deliver a professional experience that encourages repeat business and stronger relationships. 

Lessons-learned meetings should be practical

A project review does not need to become a long formal exercise. In many cases, a focused meeting with the right people can produce the necessary information. The estimator, project manager, commercial lead and site representative should review what was planned, what actually occurred and what should change. The conversation should remain specific. 

Saying that communication could have been better is not enough. Which information was missing? Who needed it? When should it have been provided? What step should be added or changed? Saying that procurement was difficult is not enough. Which item created the problem? Why was it ordered late? Was approval delayed? Was the lead time misunderstood? Who should track it differently next time? 

General comments create little improvement. Specific lessons can be turned into action. 

Every lesson should have an owner

One of the biggest weaknesses in lessons-learned meetings is that the discussion ends without responsibility. People agree that the handover form should be updated, labour rates should be reviewed or supplier lead times should be adjusted, but no one has been assigned to make the changes. 

The lesson is then lost. 

Every agreed improvement should have an owner and a deadline. If the estimating database needs to be updated, someone should be responsible for it. If the pre-start checklist requires a new access question, someone should revise it. If the site team needs additional training on a detail, that training should be scheduled. If the supplier information is inaccurate, procurement should correct it. 

The purpose of the review is not simply to discuss the past. It is to improve the future. That only happens when the lesson becomes action. 

The review process should remain constructive

People will only share useful information when they believe the review is fair. If every project meeting becomes an effort to identify who made the mistake, employees will protect themselves. They will provide less detail, avoid difficult subjects and shift responsibility. That destroys the value of the process. 

Accountability still matters. If someone ignored a required step or failed to communicate important information, leadership must address it. However, the broader review should also focus on how the system supported or failed the people performing the work. 

Was the expectation clear? Was the correct information available? Was the responsibility assigned? Was there enough time? Did the process identify the risk? Was the issue escalated soon enough? 

Strong leaders examine both individual performance and system performance. That creates a more honest and useful discussion. 

Small improvements build long-term advantage

The greatest value of lessons learned does not come from one major discovery. It comes from repeated small improvements. A labour rate is adjusted, a handover question is added, a supplier lead time is corrected, a site reporting requirement is clarified, a recurring detail is included in training, a variation procedure is strengthened or a quality inspection happens earlier. 

Each change may appear minor, but over time those changes make the business more accurate, efficient and predictable. That is how operational excellence develops. It is not created through a single software platform, a single management meeting or a single written procedure. It is created by learning from real work and improving how the next project is estimated, planned and delivered. 

Completion should create a better starting point

Every roofing contractor works hard to complete projects, satisfy clients and protect margin. The strongest companies take one additional step. They make sure the completed project leaves the business better prepared for the next one. 

They compare the estimate with actual cost, review labour performance, listen to the site team, study quality issues, examine commercial results and capture client feedback. They turn those lessons into changes that improve future tenders and future projects. 

A contractor that completes work without learning from it gains revenue and experience. A contractor that captures the lesson gains something more valuable. It gains a stronger operating system. 

The best roofing companies do not simply finish projects and move on. They use every project to improve the next one. 

About the author 

John Kenney has more than 45 years of experience in the roofing industry. His career has included every level of roofing operations, from field installation and estimating through executive leadership. He is the CEO of Cotney Consulting Group, a partner member of the International Federation for the Roofing Trades. He has earned the MIoR designation from the former Institute of Roofing in the United Kingdom. He works with roofing contractors to improve estimating, project management, operational performance, leadership and profitability. 

By John Kenney, Cotney Consulting Group.  

The strongest roofing contractors are the ones who see the problems coming and prepare accordingly. 

After more than 45 years in the roofing industry, I have learned that many project failures do not begin on site. They begin weeks earlier, when a decision was delayed, an order was not placed, access was not confirmed or information was not chased soon enough. 

By the time the issue becomes visible, the opportunity to manage it properly may already be gone. A material has not arrived, the planned area is not available, the client has changed the sequence, the site team is waiting, additional plant is required or a delivery must be rearranged. The business then moves into recovery mode; people work harder, calls become more urgent and costs begin to increase. 

The problem may appear to be today’s problem, but it was usually created by a lack of planning several weeks earlier. That is why planning is one of the most important operational disciplines a roofing contractor can develop. 

Planning is more than producing a programme. 

Most contractors have a project programme, but that does not necessarily mean they are planning effectively. 

A programme may show when work is expected to begin and finish, but true planning goes much further. It considers the sequence of activities, availability of labour, material lead times, access arrangements, plant requirements, approvals, temporary protection, coordination with other trades and the effect of weather on the work. 

A programme tells the team what should happen. Planning determines whether it can happen. 

A roofing project may be shown as starting on a particular date, but has the insulation been approved? Have the rooflights been ordered? Is the scaffolding complete? Are lifting arrangements confirmed? Has the client released the work area? Are the required operatives available? Has the substrate been inspected? Are the design details complete? 

If those questions have not been answered, the start date is only an intention. The most successful roofing contractors test the programme against reality. 

Materials should be managed before they become urgent 

Material planning has always been important, but delays, transport disruption, manufacturing constraints and changing product availability have made it even more critical. Not every material creates the same risk. Some products can be obtained locally with short notice, while others require technical approval, fabrication, colour selection, design input or scheduled manufacturing. The project team should understand that difference from the beginning. 

A standard roll of membrane should not be managed in the same way as a bespoke metal flashing, rooflight, tapered insulation scheme or specialist edge detail. Critical materials need to be identified during the handover and tracked separately. 

The contractor should know what information is required before each item can be released, who is responsible for providing it and when the order must be placed to protect the programme. Waiting until the material is needed is too late. 

Many procurement problems arise because the team assumes there is more time than there actually is. The contractor may be waiting for a technical submission, final dimensions, colour approval or client instruction and each delay shortens the available manufacturing window. 

By the time the order is finally released, the supplier is blamed for a lead time that should have been planned from the start. Planning does not eliminate every delay, but it gives the contractor more options. That alone has value.

Labour planning requires a wider view

Labour is often managed one week at a time — the company reviews which sites are active, which team is available and where the greatest pressure exists. That may be necessary for daily operations, but it is not enough for long-term control. 

Roofing contractors need to look several weeks ahead. They need to understand which projects are expected to start, which are likely to finish, where labour demand will peak and which jobs require specific skills or supervision. Without that wider view, one delayed project can disrupt the entire labour plan. 

A project that was expected to finish on Friday may continue for another two weeks, even though the same operatives have already been allocated to another site. The contractor then has to move people, delay a start, use unfamiliar labour or divide a team that should remain together. 

The result is usually lower productivity. 

Labour planning should also account for more than total numbers. The question is not simply how many operatives are available. The business needs to know which people are suitable for the work, who can supervise the project, who is familiar with the system and whether the planned team can achieve the output assumed in the tender. 

A team of six is not automatically more productive than a team of four. Too many people in a restricted area can reduce output rather than improve it. The correct labour plan depends on the project, sequence, access and available workface. That is why planning must begin with more than a headcount. 

Plant and access can control the entire project

Many roofing projects are delayed because plant and access are treated as secondary issues. 

They are not secondary. They often control whether the work can proceed at all. 

Scaffolding, hoists, cranes, telehandlers, mobile elevating work platforms, loading areas and material storage all affect productivity and programme. If the contractor does not confirm these arrangements early, the site team may arrive ready to work but unable to move materials to the roof. 

Additional handling is one of the most common forms of hidden labour loss. Materials are delivered to the wrong location, moved once for storage, moved again for access and moved a third time before installation. 

Each movement consumes labour and increases the risk of damage. The contractor may not notice the cost because it is spread across the project, but it is still there. 

Good planning asks practical questions before mobilisation. Where will materials be delivered? How will they reach the roof? How much storage is available? Which areas must remain clear? Who is responsible for booking plant? What happens if access is shared with another trade? Are there restrictions on delivery times? Will the same access arrangement be available throughout the project? 

These questions are operational, but they are also financial. Poor access planning quickly becomes a labour problem. 

Weather must be part of the plan 

Roofing will always be affected by weather. 

The challenge is not predicting every condition perfectly. The challenge is building enough flexibility into the plan to respond when conditions change. 

A realistic programme should consider the time of year, the type of roofing system, the sequence of stripping and covering, temporary protection and the consequences of leaving areas exposed. It should also consider which work can continue if the planned activity cannot proceed. 

Can prefabrication continue? Can materials be distributed? Can internal work be completed? Can another area be released? Can inspections or quality checks be brought forward? Contractors that plan alternatives lose less time. Those that plan only one sequence are more vulnerable. Weather delays become especially expensive when the business has already committed labour, plant and deliveries to one activity with no secondary plan. 

The most prepared contractors do not assume the weather will cooperate. They build options. 

Communication must happen before the problem 

One of the clearest signs of weak planning is late communication. 

The client is told about a delay after the date has already been missed. The supplier is contacted when the material is urgently required. The site team is informed of a sequence change after arriving on site. The commercial team hears about additional work after it has been completed. At that point, the conversation becomes more difficult. 

Early communication creates choices. Late communication creates explanations. A client may be willing to adjust the sequence if the issue is raised early enough. A supplier may be able to prioritise an order if given proper notice. A project manager may be able to move labour to another area if the team knows access will not be available. 

The earlier the information is shared, the more options remain. That does not mean communicating every minor concern as though it is a crisis. It means identifying issues with enough time to manage them professionally. 

Good communication is part of planning because it gives the entire project team time to respond. 

Cash flow is affected by operational planning. 

Planning is not limited to site performance. It also affects cash flow. Materials may require deposits or early payment. Labour costs begin before the contractor receives payment. Plant hire continues even when work is delayed. Late variations may not be included in the next payment application. 

An operationally disorganised project often becomes financially disorganised as well. The business may carry more cost than expected because procurement happened too early or too late. It may miss valuation opportunities because additional work was not recorded promptly. It may continue paying for labour and plant while waiting for access or information. 

The project manager and commercial team should therefore plan together. What costs will be incurred before the next payment cycle? Which materials require early commitment? What information is needed to support the application? Which variations must be valued now? Are delays affecting cost recovery? 

Operational decisions create financial consequences. The strongest contractors understand that connection. 

Short planning meetings can create long-term control 

Planning does not require endless meetings. It requires disciplined conversations held regularly. 

A weekly planning review can identify upcoming risks before they become urgent. The team should look beyond the current week and ask what must happen over the next three, six or even 12 weeks.

 Which projects are starting? Which are finishing? Which materials are critical? Which approvals are outstanding? Where will labour demand increase? What plant must be booked? Which clients need updated information? Which commercial issues require action? 

The purpose is not to create a perfect forecast. Construction changes too quickly for that. The purpose is to keep the business looking ahead. A contractor that reviews only what happened last week is managing history. A contractor that reviews what must happen next month is managing operations. 

Both are necessary, but only one protects the future. 

Planning further ahead protects margin 

Many contractors associate margin loss with poor estimating. Sometimes the estimate is the problem. 

Often, however, the estimate was reasonable, and the delivery process allowed small inefficiencies to accumulate. Additional carriage is paid, plant is extended, labour waits, materials are handled repeatedly, work is completed out of sequence, supervision is required for longer than planned and variations are submitted late. 

None of these costs may be large enough to attract immediate attention, but together they reduce profitability. Planning protects margin by reducing avoidable disruption. It allows the contractor to order more strategically, schedule labour more accurately, coordinate plant properly and communicate changes before they become emergencies. 

The business becomes less reactive. That is the real advantage. 

Better planning creates a more predictable business 

Roofing contractors cannot control every event that affects a project. They cannot control the weather, manufacturing capacity, client decisions or every condition found on site. They can control how early they look for risk, how quickly they respond, whether responsibilities are clear and whether important information is reviewed every week or left until someone remembers it. 

The most successful roofing contractors are not those that avoid every problem. They are the ones that give themselves more time to manage problems properly. They plan materials before they become urgent, plan labour before teams become overcommitted, confirm access before operatives arrive, communicate before dates are missed and review commercial issues before costs are forgotten. 

Planning further ahead does not make roofing predictable in every detail. It makes the business more prepared. That preparation improves productivity, communication, cash flow and margin. It also gives the contractor something every business needs. 

More control over what happens next. 

Learn more about Cotney Consulting Group in their Coffee Shop Directory or visit www.cotneyconsulting.com.

About the author 

John Kenney has more than 45 years of experience in the roofing industry. His career has included every level of roofing operations, from field installation and estimating through executive leadership. He is the CEO of Cotney Consulting Group, a partner member of the International Federation for the Roofing Trades. He has earned the MIoR designation from the former Institute of Roofing in the United Kingdom. He works with roofing contractors to improve estimating, project management, operational performance, leadership and profitability. 

By Emma Peterson. 

Explore the articles that generated the most interest this month. 

In the last month, over 250 articles have been published on RoofersCoffeeShop.com. That’s a lot of reading to keep up with, especially for busy contractors who are going between the office and the field. To make it easier to keep up, we’ve looked at those hundreds of articles and picked out the most popular ones to showcase.  

In this list, there are a couple of articles authored by Heidi J. Ellsworth, the president of The Coffee Shops™. In one article she highlights how the National Roofing Contractors Association (NRCA) is expanding mental health support through suicide prevention training, made possible through a collaboration with LivingWorks. The other article dove into the importance of awards and recognition during the current artificial intelligence boom.  

Our friends over at Cotney Consulting Group also contributed a few articles on our top 10 list, including one about crystalline silica exposure and another about creating an operational preparedness plan to navigate the current global political environment.  

Our number one article of the month showcased FMI Corporation’s 2026 Q2 North America Construction and Engineering Outlook Report and was written by Emma Peterson, senior content developer for The Coffee Shops™. This was not the only article of Emma’s that made the list, as her articles about turning data into business strategies, taking on leadership roles and the development of the metal roof retrofit industry were also featured. 

July 2026’s top articles 

10 - Eagleview warns emergency managers: A below average hurricane season is not a safe season by Eagleview. 

9 - NRCA expands mental health support with free suicide prevention training by Heidi J. Ellsworth. 

8 - NRCA Gold Circle Awards: Why recognition matters more than ever in the age of AI by Heidi J. Ellsworth. 

7 - When global events reach the rooftop by John Kenney, Cotney Consulting Group. 

6 - Building the metal roof retrofit industry by Emma Peterson. 

5 - Finding opportunity in every position by Emma Peterson. 

4 - ARCA’s Lotería Night brings fun and connection to the roofing community by Alex Tolle. 

3 - Connecting the dots between data and strategy by Emma Peterson. 

2 - The silica citation nobody sees coming by Cotney Consulting Group. 

1 - Construction growth expected in the next year by Emma Peterson. 

Por John Kenney, Cotney Consulting Group, traducido por Alberto Torres 

Un estimado no está realmente terminado hasta que se hace la revisión final del proyecto y las lecciones aprendidas se aplican al siguiente trabajo. 

Uno de los errores más comunes en nuestra industria es pensar que el trabajo del estimador termina cuando se entrega la propuesta o se firma el contrato. Es una forma de verlo que tiene sentido, porque así es como están organizadas muchas empresas de roofing. Los estimadores preparan las propuestas. El equipo de ventas cierra el trato y después operaciones toma el control. Todos pasan a la siguiente tarea. 

El problema es que los proyectos de roofing no funcionan por departamentos. 

Funcionan como un proceso continuo, y el estimado es la base sobre la que se construye todo lo demás. Cuando esa base deja de formar parte de la conversación después de que se gana el proyecto, las empresas empiezan a perder algo mucho más valioso que información. Pierden alineación. 

Siempre he dicho que el proceso de estimación es la primera etapa de la administración de un proyecto. Con los años, me he convencido de que es incluso más que eso. El estimado es la primera decisión operativa que toma una empresa sobre cómo se va a construir un proyecto. Cada suposición, cada rendimiento de producción, cada cantidad de material, cada hora de mano de obra y cada nota dentro del estimado cuentan una historia sobre cómo alguien cree que se desarrollará el trabajo. Si esas ideas nunca salen del departamento de estimados, el equipo de campo termina escribiendo su propia historia. 

Ahí es cuando los proyectos empiezan a desviarse. 

He recorrido suficientes proyectos de roofing durante las últimas cuatro décadas para saber que muy pocos se salen de control por un solo error grave. Lo más común es que poco a poco se alejen del plan original porque la información no se compartió, las suposiciones nunca se cuestionaron o las condiciones cambiaron sin que nadie se detuviera a pensar qué significaban esos cambios para el estimado. Cuando el departamento de contabilidad detecta un problema con la utilidad, las decisiones que lo causaron normalmente ocurrieron semanas antes. 

El estimado nunca debe verse únicamente como un documento de precios. Debe convertirse en la guía del equipo del proyecto. Debe explicar no solo qué fue lo que se vendió, sino también cómo el estimador esperaba que se realizara el trabajo. Eso significa identificar las áreas donde la producción puede ser más lenta, donde el acceso representa un reto, donde el orden de las actividades es importante o donde la coordinación con otros oficios puede afectar la mano de obra. Esos no son solo detalles del estimado. Son situaciones reales que el gerente de proyecto y el supervisor deben conocer antes de que llegue el primer camión a la obra. 

Un área donde constantemente veo que los contratistas tienen dificultades es en la entrega del proyecto entre departamentos. Muchas veces se limita a pasar documentos de un área a otra. El estimado puede estar completo, pero la conversación no existe. El estimador sabe por qué ajustó la mano de obra en una parte del edificio, por qué incluyó un presupuesto adicional para posibles problemas en la plataforma del techo o por qué algunos detalles necesitaban más atención. Desafortunadamente, gran parte de ese conocimiento se queda con la persona que preparó el estimado. 

El gerente de proyecto recibe los documentos. El supervisor recibe el trabajo. Pero ninguno recibe el razonamiento que hay detrás del estimado. Esa diferencia es la que muchas veces separa un proyecto rentable de uno que termina siendo una decepción. 

Las mejores empresas de roofing con las que he trabajado consideran la entrega del proyecto como una reunión operativa y no solo como un trámite administrativo. La conversación se enfoca en los riesgos, la estrategia de producción, el orden de los trabajos y las expectativas. Los estimadores explican dónde creen que el proyecto puede complicarse. El equipo de operaciones comparte aspectos del trabajo en campo que podrían requerir ajustes. Al final, todos comienzan el proyecto con la misma idea de cómo debe verse el éxito. 

Estas conversaciones casi nunca son largas, pero tienen un enorme valor. 

Otro error que cometen muchos contratistas es pensar que, una vez terminado el estimado, ya no queda nada por aprender de él. Yo creo exactamente lo contrario. El estimado debe seguir evolucionando durante toda la vida del proyecto. Conforme avanza la producción, el desempeño real de la mano de obra debe compararse con las suposiciones originales. Se debe revisar el consumo de materiales. También deben documentarse las condiciones imprevistas. Cada diferencia importante se convierte en información que fortalece los futuros estimados. 

Sin ese proceso de retroalimentación, el trabajo de estimación termina desconectado de la realidad. 

Piensa cuántas veces escuchamos decir a los contratistas: "Cada vez es más difícil calcular la mano de obra." 

La pregunta que normalmente hago es: "¿Qué le enseñaron a su departamento de estimados los últimos veinte proyectos?" 

Muchas veces la respuesta es silencio. No porque esa información no exista. Sino porque nadie la recopiló. 

Los estimados mejoran cuando el equipo de operaciones comparte su experiencia. Y las operaciones mejoran cuando los estimadores escuchan. Ambos departamentos no deberían trabajar por separado. Deben funcionar como socios con el mismo objetivo: construir proyectos rentables. 

La tecnología ha hecho que preparar estimados sea más rápido que nunca. La inteligencia artificial puede ayudar con las mediciones. Las plataformas digitales organizan planos en cuestión de segundos. Los programas identifican cantidades con gran rapidez. Todos estos son avances importantes y los contratistas deben aprovechar las herramientas que aumentan la eficiencia. Pero la tecnología todavía no puede explicar por qué la producción bajó en el lado oeste del edificio después de la hora de comida porque el área de materiales estaba saturada. Tampoco puede decirte por qué un supervisor supera constantemente la producción estimada mientras otro tiene dificultades en condiciones muy parecidas. Y tampoco puede identificar esas pequeñas lecciones operativas que solo las personas con experiencia descubren después de completar cientos de proyectos. 

Ese conocimiento solo se obtiene conectando el proceso de estimación con la ejecución del trabajo. 

Una de las lecciones más importantes que he aprendido después de toda una vida en esta industria es que los estimadores deberían salir de la oficina de vez en cuando. Visiten proyectos en ejecución. Participen en las revisiones finales. Escuchen a los supervisores explicar qué ayudó a mejorar la producción y qué la retrasó. Observen cómo las cuadrillas realmente instalan los sistemas que ustedes estiman todos los días. Esas experiencias cambian la forma de preparar un estimado porque reemplazan las suposiciones con conocimiento. 

Lo mismo aplica en sentido contrario. Los gerentes de proyecto y los líderes de campo también deben entender cómo se preparan los estimados. Cuando conocen el razonamiento detrás de las proyecciones de producción y los cálculos de mano de obra, pueden proteger mucho mejor la utilidad que se estableció desde el principio. 

Las empresas de roofing más sólidas que he conocido no ven la estimación, las operaciones y la administración de proyectos como funciones separadas. Las consideran diferentes capítulos de la misma historia. Cada uno depende del anterior y cada uno influye en el siguiente. 

Cuando esa forma de pensar se convierte en parte de la cultura de una empresa, sucede algo muy interesante. El estimado deja de verse como la propuesta que ganó el proyecto y comienza a convertirse en el plan operativo que guía todo el trabajo. Las decisiones son más consistentes. La comunicación mejora. La producción se acerca mucho más a lo que se esperaba. Y, quizá lo más importante, el siguiente estimado aprovecha todo lo que el proyecto anterior le enseñó a la empresa. 

Así es como el proceso de estimación deja de ser simplemente un departamento. Se convierte en un proceso continuo de aprendizaje, mejora y perfeccionamiento. 

La propuesta puede haberse entregado. El contrato puede estar firmado. Pero un estimado nunca debería considerarse terminado hasta que se haga la revisión final del proyecto y las lecciones aprendidas se apliquen al siguiente trabajo. 

Porque los mejores estimadores no solo ayudan a ganar proyectos. Ayudan a construir mejores empresas de roofing.