Roofing sector confidence falls as Iran conflict and economic uncertainty take toll

NFRC's latest State of the Roofing Industry Report reveals declining workloads, subdued recruitment and falling confidence. 

National Federation of Roofing Contractors (NFRC) today published its latest 2026 State of the Roofing Industry Report, revealing a significant deterioration in business confidence across the U.K. roofing sector over the winter months. Economic headwinds driven by overseas conflict, wet weather disruption and broader market uncertainty have weighed heavily on activity. 

Confidence and workload fall sharply 

Only 29% of roofing contractors reported an increase in workload over the winter months, down from 37% in autumn 2025 and 48% in Q4 2024, a 20-percentage point fall year-on-year. New enquiries also declined, with just 26% of contractors reporting growth, compared to 34% in the previous quarter. 

The picture remains cautious looking ahead. Only 28% of roofing contractors expect their workload to increase over the next 12 months, a significant drop from 40% in Autumn 2025. Public sector contractors are particularly pessimistic. 

Political uncertainty has also risen and was identified as the second most reported challenge amongst NFRC Member businesses at 54%. This will only have increased since the survey was completed earlier this year, and it remains to be seen what a change in leadership will mean for the built environment. 

Impact of conflict 

While the recent peace deal has brought some relief, the roofing sector continues to feel the economic consequences of the conflict. Respondents reported that fuel surcharges and materials price volatility persisted throughout the survey period, with one contractor noting that suppliers were increasing surcharges "virtually on a weekly basis."

The International Monetary Fund revised its U.K. growth forecast down to 0.8% for 2026, and Barbour ABI revised their residential sector forecast to -4% for the year. 

Disruption to energy markets is expected to continue throughout 2026 and rising inflation and regulatory pressures will continue to affect construction schemes for the foreseeable future.  

NFRC CEO James Talman said:

"While the full implications of the conflict remain unclear, businesses are struggling and growth projections for construction are being revised down in line with the wider U.K. economy." 

NFRC policy and external affairs manager Gray Gibson added:

 "The peace deal is welcome but it has not alleviated any pressure for businesses at the delivery end of the supply chain. Materials prices remain elevated, margins are being squeezed and confidence is fragile.” 

How roofing contractors find their workers 

The Winter report for the first time explores the recruitment channels NFRC members use to bring workers into the industry. The findings reveal a sector that continues to rely heavily on informal networks rather than formal recruitment infrastructure. 

For experienced and skilled workers, word of mouth and recommendations from existing employees were the most commonly cited methods. The same was true for new entrants to the industry, where informal channels again dominated. While these approaches reflect the close-knit nature of the trade, they also point to a structural challenge: if businesses are not reaching beyond their existing networks, the pool of potential recruits remains narrow. Worth noting also is that NFRC Members generally represent the larger end of the roofing and cladding industry. For smaller businesses, these results are likely even more pronounced.  

NFRC response 

NFRC is supporting members through the current period of uncertainty with guidance on managing inflation, reviewing contract terms and engaging with suppliers. NFRC is also representing the challenges facing specialist contractors in national supply chain forums and continues to campaign for government action on construction demand, skills investment and supply chain fairness.