Estimating is the beginning of project management

By John Kenney, Cotney Consulting Group.  

A strong estimator does not simply ask what the project will cost. They ask what the project will require.  

Estimating is often described as the process of determining what a roofing project should cost. That is certainly part of the responsibility, but it is not the whole responsibility. A strong estimate does more than calculate quantities, apply labour rates and obtain supplier quotations. It begins by defining how the project can be delivered successfully. 

The estimating process is often the first time anyone within the roofing business studies the project in real detail. The estimator reviews the drawings, specifications, scope of works, programme, access requirements, material selections and contractual information. Through that review, they begin identifying what the work will require, where the risks may be and which assumptions must be made before a tender can be submitted. 

Those decisions will influence the project long after the tender has been accepted. For that reason, I have always believed that estimating is the beginning of project management. The estimator may not manage the project on site. Still, the work completed during tendering creates the foundation from which the project manager, contracts manager, commercial team and site team must operate. 

When that foundation is accurate and clearly communicated, the project begins with direction. When it is incomplete, the delivery team begins by searching for answers. 

The estimate should explain how the project will be built 

An estimate is more than a price attached to a scope of works. It is a financial model of how the contractor expects the work to be carried out. 

The labour allowance reflects an assumed installation method and productivity level. The plant allowance reflects an expected access strategy. Material costs reflect particular products, quantities, waste factors and delivery arrangements. Supervision costs reflect the expected duration and complexity of the project.  

An operational assumption supports every important number. The estimate may assume that materials can be delivered close to the point of use, that one roof area will be completed before the next begins or that the contractor will have continuous access during normal working hours. It may also assume that the substrate is ready, design information will be issued on time and other trades will not interfere with the roofing sequence. 

If those assumptions prove incorrect, the project cost changes. That does not necessarily mean the estimate was poor. It may mean the delivery conditions changed. The problem arises when the assumptions were never recorded or communicated. The project team then sees only the price without understanding the conditions on which it was built. 

A useful estimate should therefore explain both what the work is expected to cost and how the contractor expects to deliver it for that cost. 

Tender review is an early form of risk management 

Every project contains risk. Some risks are technical, some are commercial and others are operational. The estimator is often the first person within the business to have an opportunity to identify them. 

The drawings may conflict with the specification. The proposed programme may be shorter than the work reasonably requires. Access may be unclear. The roofing system may require approvals or design information that has not yet been provided. Existing conditions may be unknown, or the tender documents may allocate responsibilities that are not clearly reflected in the scope. 

A disciplined estimator does not simply price around these uncertainties and move on. The estimator identifies them, seeks clarification where possible and records the assumptions needed to complete the tender. That is risk management. 

It does not mean attempting to eliminate every uncertainty before submitting a price. That is rarely possible in construction. It means ensuring the business understands the uncertainty it is accepting and has considered how it may affect delivery. 

This supports the wider responsibility placed on contractors to plan, manage and monitor their work. The tendering process should contribute to that planning rather than operate separately from it. 

Labour should be estimated as work, not simply as hours 

Labour is one of the most difficult costs to estimate accurately because productivity depends on far more than the roofing system being installed. 

The same roof covering can produce very different labour results from one project to another. Access may be restricted, materials may require additional handling and the roof may contain numerous penetrations, changes in level or complex perimeter details. The work may need to be completed in phases around an occupied building, or operatives may need to stop repeatedly for coordination with other trades. 

An estimate that considers only the number of square metres and applies a standard production rate may miss the conditions that will control actual performance. 

Good labour estimating begins by considering how the team will work. The estimator should review how materials will reach the roof, how much usable workface will be available, what preparation is required and whether the work will proceed continuously or across several separate visits. Difficult details, restricted areas, temporary protection, daily sealing and limitations on working hours should also be considered. 

The estimator does not need to predict every movement made on site, but the labour allowance should reflect the operating conditions described in the tender documents. A realistic labour plan is one of the first project-management decisions the business makes. 

Access and plant must be part of the price 

Roofing contractors do not install work in isolation from the rest of the site. Access, lifting, storage and plant arrangements can determine whether the project runs efficiently or becomes difficult from the beginning. 

The estimator should understand how roofing materials will arrive, where they will be stored and how they will be moved to the work area. If others are providing scaffolding, the tender should establish whether it is suitable for the roofing work. If the contractor is responsible for hoists, telehandlers, cranes or mobile elevating work platforms, the likely duration and number of visits should be considered. 

Shared access can also create risk. A loading area may be available in principle but controlled by the main contractor. A crane may appear on the site plan but be unavailable when roofing deliveries are scheduled. Materials may be permitted on the roof only in limited quantities. These conditions affect labour, programme and cost. 

If the estimate assumes straightforward access but the project requires repeated handling, the labour allowance may already be under pressure before installation begins. Access should therefore not be treated as a note to be resolved later. It is part of the delivery strategy and must be considered during estimating. 

Procurement begins during tendering 

The estimator is also in a strong position to identify procurement risk. Some roofing materials are readily available, while others may require technical review, project-specific manufacture, colour approval, design calculations or confirmed dimensions before they can be ordered. 

Long-lead items should be recognised during the tender stage. The business should understand whether the proposed programme allows enough time for approval and manufacture. If it does not, the issue should be raised before the contractor commits to a start date it may be unable to meet. This is particularly important when several decisions depend on information from the client, designer, main contractor or manufacturer. 

A product may have a stated manufacturing lead time, but that period does not necessarily begin when the contract is awarded. It may begin only after drawings are approved, dimensions are confirmed or technical submissions are accepted. 

The estimator should help make that sequence visible so the project team can begin procurement with realistic expectations rather than discovering critical lead times after the programme has already been agreed. 

Assumptions, exclusions and qualifications must be clear 

Tender qualifications are sometimes viewed as obstacles to winning work. Used poorly, they can make a submission difficult to evaluate. Used properly, they help everyone understand exactly what has been priced. 

Assumptions explain the conditions on which the price is based. Exclusions identify work or responsibility that has not been included. Qualifications clarify how the contractor has interpreted incomplete, conflicting or uncertain tender information. 

These should not become a collection of vague statements intended to protect the contractor from every possibility. They should identify the issues that could materially affect cost, programme or delivery. 

The contractor may need to clarify assumed working hours, access arrangements, substrate condition, the number of mobilisation visits, responsibility for temporary works or the treatment of concealed defects. This is not an attempt to avoid responsibility. It is an effort to establish a clear commercial and operational baseline. 

The more clearly that baseline is defined, the easier it becomes to identify genuine change during the project. If the original scope and assumptions are unclear, the site team may complete additional work without recognising that it differs from the tender, leaving the commercial team to reconstruct the position after the cost has already been incurred. Clear tender documentation supports better project control. 

The programme must be tested before it is accepted 

A tender programme may appear reasonable until it is compared with the actual requirements of the roofing work. The estimator should consider whether the proposed duration reflects the quantities, details, access arrangements, material lead times and expected labour resources. 

If several roof areas must proceed simultaneously, the estimate may need additional supervision, plant and labour. If the project is phased, the contractor may need to allow for repeated mobilisation, temporary protection and material handling. If stripping and covering must be limited to restricted daily areas, the labour allowance should reflect that sequence. 

The effect of approvals and procurement should also be considered. A planned start date has little meaning if the materials cannot be released for manufacture until essential information is received. The estimator does not need to become the final authority on the construction programme, but concerns should be identified before the tender is submitted. 

A programme that cannot reasonably be delivered creates pressure throughout the project. Labour is increased, plant is extended, supervision continues longer and teams work out of sequence in an effort to recover time. Those costs may appear to be production problems, but the original risk may have been visible during estimating. 

Commercial review should happen before commitment 

The lowest calculated cost is not always the correct tender price. The contractor must also consider the commercial conditions under which the work will be carried out. Payment terms, retention, design responsibility, programme obligations, delay provisions, notice requirements, warranties and insurance conditions can all affect the project. 

The estimator may not be responsible for interpreting every contractual provision. That responsibility may sit with a commercial manager, quantity surveyor, director or external adviser. However, the estimating process should trigger the review. 

The business should understand the material commercial conditions before submitting a tender or accepting an order, not after work has started. These requirements influence how the project must be administered, documented and delivered. They therefore form part of the project plan, even when responsibility for reviewing them sits outside the estimating team. 

The handover should begin with the estimator’s reasoning 

When a contract is secured, the project team needs more than the final tender summary. It needs the reasoning developed during estimating. 

The handover should explain the planned labour approach, procurement priorities, access assumptions, critical details, exclusions, qualifications and unresolved information. It should also identify where the tender changed during negotiation and whether the final order differs from the original submission. 

The project manager should test the assumptions before the business begins spending money. The proposed sequence must be practical, labour resources must be available, critical materials must be identified andthe access plan must still apply. Any qualifications removed or changed during contract negotiation should also be understood. 

The purpose is not to challenge the estimator for its own sake. It is to test the original delivery plan while there is still time to make controlled adjustments. 

That discussion creates continuity between tendering and delivery. Without it, the project manager may unknowingly build a new plan that bears little resemblance to the one used to establish the price. 

Estimators need feedback from completed projects 

Estimating can only improve when actual project performance returns to the estimating team. If labour exceeded the allowance, the estimator needs to understand why. If material waste was higher than expected, the cause should be reviewed. If plant was required for longer, the delivery conditions should be examined. If a particular detail consistently takes more time, future estimates should reflect that experience. This does not mean every overrun proves the estimate was incorrect. The project may have been delayed, resequenced or changed. 

The important point is understanding the difference between what was planned and what occurred. Without that feedback, estimating relies on historical assumptions that may no longer reflect current performance. Labour output changes, material packaging changes, site conditions vary and installation methods improve. The estimate should inform the project, and the completed project should improve the next estimate. 

Better estimating creates better delivery 

Roofing contractors are often under pressure to submit tenders quickly. There may be limited information, a short return period and several other opportunities requiring attention. That pressure is real, but speed should not reduce estimating to a pricing exercise. 

The estimating process is where labour, procurement, access, plant, programme and commercial risk first come together. It is where the contractor begins determining what will be required to complete the work safely, efficiently and profitably. 

A strong estimator does not simply ask what the project will cost. They ask what the project will require. When that thinking is carried into the handover, the business enters the contract with clearer expectations, better information and a more realistic plan. The project manager is not starting from scratch; the site team is not being asked to discover the strategy after mobilisation; and procurement is not learning about critical materials when they are already urgent. 

Estimating does not simply establish the price. It establishes the first operating plan for the project. That is why estimating is the beginning of project management. 

About the author 

John Kenney has more than 45 years of experience in the roofing industry. His career has included every level of roofing operations, from field installation and estimating through executive leadership. He is CEO of Cotney Consulting Group, a partner member of the International Federation for the Roofing Trades and earned the MIoR designation from the former Institute of Roofing in the United Kingdom. He works with roofing contractors to improve estimating, project management, operational performance, leadership and profitability.